The market had been expecting jobless claims in November to be in excess of 130,000. Instead the jobs report released Friday showed only 11,000 newly unemployed. In addition, the national unemployment rates actually fell to 10%, from 10.2% last month. Keep in mind that this news came a day after the Jobs Growth Summit. With what will undoubtedly be more spending on job creation from that process, and the second phase of stimulus money ($200B+) starting next month, unemployment appears poised to turn substantially positive sometime in the first quarter of 2010.
While one can debate the result once all this stimulus is withdrawn, it seems to me that next year should finally show some similar and substantial turnaround in housing. The Denver market has already shown strong signs of stabilizing over the last few months. And I think next summer will show solid gains in home sales here, over 2009.
That leaves the rate environment ahead. Any recovery perceived will mean rates drift higher. Presure is already forming for the Federal Reserve to raise rates starting in the first quarter of 2010. With tax credits for buyers, interest rates and home prices where they are now, I truly think this is the best buying time for consumers we’ll see.
